Coniglio: Rescheduling Could Trigger MASSIVE Refinancing Wave
Right now, all eyes are on Washington. Welcome to TDR’s Friday live stream of the Trade to Black Podcast. Ongoing rumors suggest cannabis could soon be rescheduled from Schedule I to Schedule III — a move that would effectively end the 280E tax burden and restructure the credit profiles of major MSOs. Anthony Coniglio explains how NewLake Capital is preparing for that potential shift and the refinancing wave that might result.
Governor Gavin Newsom signs legislation to ban sales of intoxicating hemp products outside licensed dispensaries and migrate them into cannabis stores, but the law doesn’t take effect until January 1, 2028. The move is aimed at consolidating the industry and closing loopholes that allowed unregulated hemp-derived THC to compete outside dispensaries.
In Canada, the panel argues excise reform sits low on Ottawa’s agenda amid broader fiscal debates, implying no near-term tax relief for producers. And then there’s the political side: after President Trump’s Truth Social post on September 28, investors are speculating whether a rescheduling decision could come sooner rather than later. Could Republicans seize this issue from Democrats — and what would that mean for cannabis capital markets?
NewLake Capital CEO Anthony Coniglio joins to frame Trump’s hints about rescheduling as the trigger for a “positive feedback loop”: removal of 280E, potential state expansions, safer banking, uplisting, better custody, deeper liquidity, refinancing, and eventual re-equitization. For operators, that could mean access to lower rates, improved balance sheets, and the ability to refinance costly debt. A single rate cut offers only marginal relief to operators heavy in fixed-rate debt.
On distressed real estate, NewLake underwrites with re-tenanting in mind and is preparing to remarket facilities in Pennsylvania and Nevada. The show also flags a Michigan proposal for a 24% wholesale tax projected to raise “$420 million,” warning it could push consumers back to illicit channels.
Chart Guys’ Dan reviews MSOS, which tests the $5 midpoint of a broader $4–$6 range. He expects chop absent “concrete” catalysts. Liquidity magnet Tilray draws outsized flows and can serve traders despite limited U.S. exposure; Canopy Growth continues to show relative weakness until reclaiming $1.63. High Tide consolidates sideways with a weekly higher-low focus near $3.15, while Village Farms prints a double top around $3.40 and fills a $2.80 gap before bulls attempt a bounce.
This and more in our latest livestream.
