Smart Money Moving Before Schedule III?
In the latest Trade To Black podcast presented by Flowhub, hosts Shadd Dales and Anthony Varrell break down rumors intensifying that federal cannabis rescheduling could be finalized soon. Could marijuana officially move to Schedule III — and what would that mean for MSOs, capital markets, and institutional investment? Green Thumb Industries (OTCQX: BTBIF) secured an additional $50 million in senior debt financing, expanding its syndicated credit facility to $189 million. The five-year agreement, led by Valley National Bank and maturing in 2029, included no equity issuance — a signal that major operators are strengthening liquidity ahead of potential regulatory change. With Curaleaf (TSX: CURA), Trulieve (OTCQX: TCNNF), and Cresco Labs (OTCQX: CRLBF) also active recently, is M&A acceleration pointing to something bigger?
Hosts Shadd Dales and Anthony Varrell opened the latest episode of Trade to Black by addressing fresh speculation that federal cannabis rescheduling could arrive within days. While cautioning viewers not to read too much into the chatter, they underscored that the convergence of signals from several separate sources gave them genuine confidence that action could be imminent.
The conversation then turned to Green Thumb Industries, which added a $50 million senior secured credit facility led by Valley National Bank, bringing its total syndicated facility to $189 million at a rate of roughly 10 to 10.5 percent maturing in 2029. Dales and Varrell placed the move in a broader context, noting that Curaleaf, Cresco, and Verano have all been restructuring their balance sheets within the past 45 days. The hosts argued this coordinated rush to secure liquidity strongly suggests the major multistate operators are positioning for near-term reform rather than bracing for a prolonged period of inaction.
The episode also touched on a notable legal development: the Department of Justice informed the Supreme Court that the federal prohibition on firearm ownership by cannabis users should remain in effect even if cannabis is moved to Schedule III.
Guest Michael Bronstein joined for an extended segment covering the mechanics of rescheduling and a recent New York Times editorial framing cannabis as a public health crisis, Bronstein described a cannabis industry that, under full federal normalization, would likely consolidate toward a distribution model resembling the three-tier alcohol system, with large-scale commodity cultivation on the West Coast, national brands, and big alcohol and tobacco as the most probable acquirers of existing operators.
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