The Cannabis Industry’s New Political Reality
In this episode of the Trade to Black podcast, hosts dissected some of the cannabis industry’s most pressing developments—spanning collapsing companies, political controversy, and regulatory dysfunction.
Ayr Wellness, a once-prominent multi-state cannabis operator, now faces a potential collapse. With its stock price down over 50% and a cease trade order imminent, the company has enlisted Moelis & Company to oversee a strategic restructuring. Debt remains a central concern, and public equity holders could be completely wiped out depending on how the restructuring unfolds.
Ayr Wellness isn’t the only cannabis company suffering in the industry. There is a palpable sense of disillusionment with public cannabis equities. Several companies besides Ayr Wellness, have seen massive devaluations. Ayr now trades with a market cap of just around $12 million. This decline is emblematic of the larger deflation in cannabis stock valuations since their post-legalization highs in 2021.
A sobering contrast came in the form of Canopy Growth Corporation, which recently released its latest earnings under new CEO Luc Mongeau. The hosts expressed cautious optimism about the leadership change, noting that the upcoming quarter—his first full reporting period—would be a more telling indicator of operational reforms.
Looking into the political events of this week, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick held up a bag of Delta-9 THC edibles and claimed they could kill adults and ruin mental health, despite the identical compound being approved under Texas’s own medical cannabis program, known as the Texas Compassionate Use Program (TCUP). This led to broader concerns about the need for federal regulation of THC, regardless of whether it’s derived from hemp or marijuana.
Amid volatile market conditions, regulatory confusion, and lingering stigma, the cannabis industry remains at a crossroads. But despite the bleakness around many operators’ current predicaments, companies that are able to pivot may weather the storm. Village Farms, led by CEO Michael DeGiglio, is cited as a turnaround story, having spun out of its vegetable business to refocus purely on cannabis with a leaner structure and a strong operational team.
Tune in for all our thoughts.