This Earnings Season Feels Different in Cannabis
This earnings season feels different in cannabis, but why? The Trade to Black podcast, presented by FlowHub, kicked off its latest episode with host Shadd Dales recapping new earnings from Trulieve (OTCQX: TCNNF) and Curaleaf (TSX: CURA) before sitting down with Anthony Coniglio, CEO of NewLake Capital Partners (OTCQX: NLCP) for a conversation about what’s really changing across the sector.
We dive into Trulieve’s Q4 and full-year 2025 results which include a record operating cash flow of $273 million and free cash flow of $229 million, with an industry-leading gross margin of 60 percent. While net revenue of $1.2 billion came in roughly flat year over year, wholesale revenue jumped 25 percent, and the company’s cleaned-up balance sheet and optionality in markets like Texas and Pennsylvania were seen as significant strengths. Curaleaf’s numbers were also reviewed, with net revenue reaching $333.1 million, up 2 percent year over year, and international revenue surging 63 percent, though the company posted a net loss of $201.9 million from continuing operations.
Anthony Coniglio, CEO of NewLake Capital, joined the show to discuss what the credit markets are signaling about the industry’s future. He argued that lenders pricing cannabis debt at rates like 10.5 to 11.5 percent are effectively betting on a world without 280E, reflecting a growing confidence in the sector’s cash flow generation that has yet to be fully reflected in equity prices.
The conversation examines the pathway for cannabis companies to uplist to major exchanges, with Coniglio cautioning that rescheduling alone would not clear that hurdle, since companies would still be operating a Schedule III substance without a DEA license. He emphasized that institutional liquidity — measured in daily average trading volume — is the key prerequisite for meaningful institutional investment, and that a positive feedback loop of improved liquidity, broader investor demand, and rising prices must first be established.
We discuss which emerging state markets could have the biggest earnings impact over the next one to two years: Ohio is favored in the near term given its active adult-use market, and Virginia may be a larger longer-term opportunity given its untapped potential. Pennsylvania is a longer runway, with a realistic launch potentially not until mid-2027.
Coniglio offers a notable observation about SAM, the prominent cannabis reform opposition group, pointing out that its subtle messaging shift away from a purely anti-cannabis stance suggests the organization itself may believe that rescheduling is increasingly inevitable. Lastly, we discuss the prospect of Wall Street research coverage returning to the sector, with Jefferies seen as a likely early mover ahead of larger banks.
This and more in our Friday episode.
