Why Q4 2026 Could Matter For Cannabis and Psychedelics
In the latest Trade To Black podcast, presented by Flowhub, hosts Shadd Dales and Anthony Varrell close out the week with Dan Ahrens, Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer of AdvisorShares, on psychedelics and cannabis capital markets, then FundCanna CEO Adam Stettner on the tax structure buried in the new bipartisan hemp bill. We’ll be looking at how Q4 2026 could impact a lot.
In the headlines: The Cannabist Company sold its New York license, another cash infusion that will be absorbed by Vireo Growth once its acquisition closes, since a single operator can’t hold two licenses in the state. The hosts also flagged reporting from Marijuana Moment’s Tom Angell that the White House has problems with specific provisions of the Barr–Craig hemp bill, particularly the smokeable-flower component — which they read as a telling signal on the administration’s mindset.
In segment one, Ahrens covered recent inflows into the AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF (NYSE Arca: PSIL) following Eli Lilly’s (NYSE: LLY) acquisition of Atai Beckley (NASDAQ: ATAI), which remains the ETF’s top holding — he trimmed a little on the news but is holding the rest given remaining deal upside and limited downside — along with recent data out of Compass Pathways (NASDAQ: CMPS) and Definium Therapeutics (NASDAQ: DFTX). He explained that psychedelic names trade on their IP as pre-revenue biotechs, and that the sector caught a bid first on RFK Jr.’s HHS appointment and again on Trump’s ibogaine-focused executive order. On cannabis, Ahrens shared his read on the ALJ hearing and expected outcome, characterizing it as a procedural formality that isn’t binding on DEA Administrator Terrance Cole, and argued the muted tape comes down to a simple reality heading into Q4 — right now, nobody cares — with experienced investors battle-scarred and outsiders still confused about legalization. He also stressed rescheduling would automatically require new banking, AML and FinCEN guidance, and previewed AdvisorShares ringing the NYSE opening bell on August 10.
In segment two, Stettner broke down the Lawful Hemp Protection Act, introduced by Republican Andy Barr and Democrat Angie Craig, explaining why its tax structure is more punishing than the “5% federal retail tax” headline suggests — stacking a five-cent-per-milligram product tax and a separate 5% ad valorem tax on THC-based beverages, which he estimated could push effective rates toward 30% or higher and echo the 280E burden that plagued traditional cannabis. Invoking the Laffer curve, he argued overtaxation fuels the illicit market and ultimately lowers tax revenue, used the bill as a jumping-off point for what sensible hemp taxation should look like, and put the odds of the November 12 ban taking effect on schedule at under 50%.
Don’t miss our speculations about what Q4 2026 might bring.
